I'd suggest Jonathan take Simon Rosenberg's advice; do more, worry less. We had a good week of polling. What happened with trump voters four years ago doesn't mean jack this year. Where is the trump ground game in PA? I'll wait....those suburban R's in Bucks County did not vote for trump in 2020, and even Paul Ryan says, they ain't gonna now.
There is no excuse for the rank stupidity of Trump supporters in Pennsylvania. Any sentient human being - from any state - should recognize that Donald Trump is a terrible waste of human protoplasm.
I am a child of Pennsylvania - my home for my first 31 years. Now I'm 75 and terribly disappointed that so many Pennsylvanians allow themselves to be sucked into the Trump vortex.
To quote a famous author, "The fact that this gap isn’t much wider — that so many voters are still fooled by Trump — is one of the reasons for my crisis of faith in the common sense of the American people." After all this time, this is exactly where I find myself. As awful as Trump is, he will be gone someday, but this willingness of tens of millions of Americans to vote for him is indicative of something very wrong in these United States - something that may cause our democracy to rot from within.
It is an issue that must be addressed. Two really, first being the lack of critical thinking skills due to an under-funded educational system that should be seen with as much respect as any wealth incubator organization and be funded as such so that great people now sucked into the tech world as drones in order to have a decent income decide to become and stick with teaching.
Second, the constant non-stop normalization of racism, stupidity, brutal barbarism by Fox news and the online RW outlets, and that should begin with papers like the NY Times ending the sane-washing of despicable morons like Turdmop and whatever editorial insanity that justifies it, as well as good news orgs seeing bad horrendous “news” orgs as chummy colleagues instead of bottom-feeding purveyors of shit and proto-genocide.
All that being said there is one thing I absolutely have faith in when it comes to Americans and that is their easy boredom and their (better angel or way to frame this) their need to move forward and they feel it now too, no matter how much they’ve been told to put up with as “normal” and “same ole, same ole” by the purveyors of shit and proto-genocide. Especially with women and the youth vote, both massively more on favor of Harris, who will be stepping into voting booths with absolute clarity and inner fires aglow as to whom needs to forever be in the rear mirror, once and for all.
Every time I drive my car, I am appalled by the behavior of my fellow drivers and while sometimes it's just aggression and selfishness that I'm confronting, at other times it's clearly ignorance of the rules of the road. In a similar way, many voters in the US are profoundly ignorant of the country's founding principles, history and institutions. That certainly needs to be addressed. But maybe, in addition to education, some kind of national service requirement would be helpful. One of the broad effects of social media has been the balkanization of the American people; national service might allow people to experience how we're all in this together. Maybe not, but I know that a stint in the AmeriCorps changed my son's life. Might be something to think about. We need an antidote to grievance politics and self-centeredness.
It is really important to remember something: Trump usually outperforms his standing in the polls.
Hillary was supposed to win in 2016. Of course, she won the pop vote by 3 million, but that was considerably less than the polls indicated
Conservatives often outperform their standing in the polls. In 1989, Doug Wilder, a black man, was supposedly 15 points ahead in the Gub race in Virgina. He did win, but by a few or a couple of points.
Conservative Whites are sometimes afraiid that if they reveal their true intentions to a pollster, black people, who work in that polling outfit, will harm them. Many conservatives are older and deeply fearful.
Also, pollsters often communiicate via mobile phones, Some older people shun mobile phones. Not many, but in a close race small percentages make up the difference.
Also, its a damn shame but the elect. college is more harmful than in the past. Electoral demographics dictate that NY and Cal will give the dems avalanches of votes, but most small and medium sized states are republican.
Don't forget: Both 2000 (Gore won by half a million) and 2016 (hillary ahead by 3 million) were contests in which the anti democratic electoral college defeated the will of the people.
I am losing respect for my countryman. Trump has said that he will abolish the constitution, will be a dictator, and that after this election people will no longer have to vote. If the citizenry were sane, he would be 50 points behind.
And why don't people know anything. Inflation was bound to happen and it is not Biden's fault. When Covid struck, we feared an economic collapse. Both Repubs and Dems agreed to pour billions of dollars into the economy. At the same time, output fell becasue as a safety precautiion many people stayed away from work. ITS ELEMENTARY, FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMICS: MORE DOLLARS CHASING FEWER GOODS YIELDS INFLATION. As I said, everyone in WDC was in favor of injecting billions into the economy to stave off a deflationary spiral. And, guess what, inflation has been up throughout the globe. When was the last time CBS or the NY Times said that. Why are they coddling Trump. Why don't they explain the truth about inflation, the biggest issue in Trump's meager arsenal of valid grievances.
I just can't fucking believe it. Trump is now beginning to sound like the headlines of that infamous Nazi rag Der Sturmer.
PS. I remember when Pa was not a swing state, when it tended to the Dem column, eg. in 1968, Humphrey won Pa with a comfortable margin but lost nationally to tricky dick.
In the past, Pa's neighbor to the West, Ohio, was a swing state. Now, it is relialy in the Republican column.
Also, consider West Virginia. It went for Dukakis in 1988, Humphrey in 68 and Carter in 80. Now its a bastion of Trumpism. The Dems biggest loss has, of course, been among white blue collar workers.
Dems are still able to compete because in recent years they have picked up Virginia, Colorado and Arizona. (Arizona went GOP in every presidential election from 1952 through 1992)
Obviously political polls sponsored by news organizations don’t tell respondents who is sponsoring the poll, particularly before the respondent answered the survey. No Trump supporters are deciding whether to respond to a poll based on how liberal the poll’s sponsor is. It’s not NYT journalists doing the cold calling… but presumably you know this?
Yes, I knew of course that journalists don't take part in conducting polls. But I don't know what the Times and the Post polltakers say when they reach a respondent. Do they mention the sponsor of the polls? I don't know. So I've cut the portion of the online version of the story that relates to this question.
At best you’d get “this poll is conducted by Sienna College Research Institute” after all responses are in. More likely you’d get “this poll is conducted by Kantar Research (or whatever) on behalf of the poll’s sponsors”. The bias from pollsters typically comes in the weighting phase and faulty assumptions, rather than any response bias from poll to poll
I'd suggest Jonathan take Simon Rosenberg's advice; do more, worry less. We had a good week of polling. What happened with trump voters four years ago doesn't mean jack this year. Where is the trump ground game in PA? I'll wait....those suburban R's in Bucks County did not vote for trump in 2020, and even Paul Ryan says, they ain't gonna now.
I agree re the ground game and the strength of suburban R's for Harris. All I'm saying is that it is closer than it should be.
I have to agree with you there. Thanks for taking the time to reply.
There is no excuse for the rank stupidity of Trump supporters in Pennsylvania. Any sentient human being - from any state - should recognize that Donald Trump is a terrible waste of human protoplasm.
I am a child of Pennsylvania - my home for my first 31 years. Now I'm 75 and terribly disappointed that so many Pennsylvanians allow themselves to be sucked into the Trump vortex.
To quote a famous author, "The fact that this gap isn’t much wider — that so many voters are still fooled by Trump — is one of the reasons for my crisis of faith in the common sense of the American people." After all this time, this is exactly where I find myself. As awful as Trump is, he will be gone someday, but this willingness of tens of millions of Americans to vote for him is indicative of something very wrong in these United States - something that may cause our democracy to rot from within.
It is an issue that must be addressed. Two really, first being the lack of critical thinking skills due to an under-funded educational system that should be seen with as much respect as any wealth incubator organization and be funded as such so that great people now sucked into the tech world as drones in order to have a decent income decide to become and stick with teaching.
Second, the constant non-stop normalization of racism, stupidity, brutal barbarism by Fox news and the online RW outlets, and that should begin with papers like the NY Times ending the sane-washing of despicable morons like Turdmop and whatever editorial insanity that justifies it, as well as good news orgs seeing bad horrendous “news” orgs as chummy colleagues instead of bottom-feeding purveyors of shit and proto-genocide.
All that being said there is one thing I absolutely have faith in when it comes to Americans and that is their easy boredom and their (better angel or way to frame this) their need to move forward and they feel it now too, no matter how much they’ve been told to put up with as “normal” and “same ole, same ole” by the purveyors of shit and proto-genocide. Especially with women and the youth vote, both massively more on favor of Harris, who will be stepping into voting booths with absolute clarity and inner fires aglow as to whom needs to forever be in the rear mirror, once and for all.
Every time I drive my car, I am appalled by the behavior of my fellow drivers and while sometimes it's just aggression and selfishness that I'm confronting, at other times it's clearly ignorance of the rules of the road. In a similar way, many voters in the US are profoundly ignorant of the country's founding principles, history and institutions. That certainly needs to be addressed. But maybe, in addition to education, some kind of national service requirement would be helpful. One of the broad effects of social media has been the balkanization of the American people; national service might allow people to experience how we're all in this together. Maybe not, but I know that a stint in the AmeriCorps changed my son's life. Might be something to think about. We need an antidote to grievance politics and self-centeredness.
MAGA mantra - "So many cats, so many hungry immigrants...vote for Trump!"
THIS is the state of the modern Republican party. It's disgraceful.
"Polls predicted..."
No, they did not, and do not. Polls do not predict anything.
We must, of course, guard against over-confidence
It is really important to remember something: Trump usually outperforms his standing in the polls.
Hillary was supposed to win in 2016. Of course, she won the pop vote by 3 million, but that was considerably less than the polls indicated
Conservatives often outperform their standing in the polls. In 1989, Doug Wilder, a black man, was supposedly 15 points ahead in the Gub race in Virgina. He did win, but by a few or a couple of points.
Conservative Whites are sometimes afraiid that if they reveal their true intentions to a pollster, black people, who work in that polling outfit, will harm them. Many conservatives are older and deeply fearful.
Also, pollsters often communiicate via mobile phones, Some older people shun mobile phones. Not many, but in a close race small percentages make up the difference.
Also, its a damn shame but the elect. college is more harmful than in the past. Electoral demographics dictate that NY and Cal will give the dems avalanches of votes, but most small and medium sized states are republican.
Don't forget: Both 2000 (Gore won by half a million) and 2016 (hillary ahead by 3 million) were contests in which the anti democratic electoral college defeated the will of the people.
I am losing respect for my countryman. Trump has said that he will abolish the constitution, will be a dictator, and that after this election people will no longer have to vote. If the citizenry were sane, he would be 50 points behind.
And why don't people know anything. Inflation was bound to happen and it is not Biden's fault. When Covid struck, we feared an economic collapse. Both Repubs and Dems agreed to pour billions of dollars into the economy. At the same time, output fell becasue as a safety precautiion many people stayed away from work. ITS ELEMENTARY, FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMICS: MORE DOLLARS CHASING FEWER GOODS YIELDS INFLATION. As I said, everyone in WDC was in favor of injecting billions into the economy to stave off a deflationary spiral. And, guess what, inflation has been up throughout the globe. When was the last time CBS or the NY Times said that. Why are they coddling Trump. Why don't they explain the truth about inflation, the biggest issue in Trump's meager arsenal of valid grievances.
I just can't fucking believe it. Trump is now beginning to sound like the headlines of that infamous Nazi rag Der Sturmer.
PS. I remember when Pa was not a swing state, when it tended to the Dem column, eg. in 1968, Humphrey won Pa with a comfortable margin but lost nationally to tricky dick.
In the past, Pa's neighbor to the West, Ohio, was a swing state. Now, it is relialy in the Republican column.
Also, consider West Virginia. It went for Dukakis in 1988, Humphrey in 68 and Carter in 80. Now its a bastion of Trumpism. The Dems biggest loss has, of course, been among white blue collar workers.
Dems are still able to compete because in recent years they have picked up Virginia, Colorado and Arizona. (Arizona went GOP in every presidential election from 1952 through 1992)
Obviously political polls sponsored by news organizations don’t tell respondents who is sponsoring the poll, particularly before the respondent answered the survey. No Trump supporters are deciding whether to respond to a poll based on how liberal the poll’s sponsor is. It’s not NYT journalists doing the cold calling… but presumably you know this?
Yes, I knew of course that journalists don't take part in conducting polls. But I don't know what the Times and the Post polltakers say when they reach a respondent. Do they mention the sponsor of the polls? I don't know. So I've cut the portion of the online version of the story that relates to this question.
At best you’d get “this poll is conducted by Sienna College Research Institute” after all responses are in. More likely you’d get “this poll is conducted by Kantar Research (or whatever) on behalf of the poll’s sponsors”. The bias from pollsters typically comes in the weighting phase and faulty assumptions, rather than any response bias from poll to poll
Remember the game where we sang "Yea boo, yea boo, it's lots of fun to do. If you like it holler"yea", if you don't, holler "boo."
That's what I thought of when I read this piece.