Longtime pollster and former GOP strategist Frank Luntz noted that Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy has thoroughly altered the “entire electoral pool.”
“She’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage. And I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,” Luntz said about three weeks after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
The resuscitation and revitalization of Democratic prospects (both large D and small d) is a Black Swan event, for sure.
I am right behind the ideology of this blog and like you as a writer but perhaps, as I come from a "land downunder" you should know more about Black Swans...in the 1960s an infamous book published by a hoax writer "The Black Swan of Trespass" came out which explored: "‘a general philosophical exploration of the idea that a creative person in this material world is almost inevitably a sacrifice’ Max Bourke, Canberra
Several years ago, I read Taleb's interesting book, The Black Swan. He introduces a metaphorical narrative about a turkey before Thanksgiving who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal - certainly a Black Swan event for the turkey. Thus, Taleb illustrates the philosophical problem of induction and how past performance is no indicator of future performance.
Further along, he describes the concept of "epistemic arrogance", which occurs whenever people begin to think they know more than they actually do. This may well describe today's entire Republican Party.
on any other debate day, chump might well not have clobbered joe. but then history in the subjunctive is always pretty slippery.
Longtime pollster and former GOP strategist Frank Luntz noted that Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy has thoroughly altered the “entire electoral pool.”
“She’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage. And I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,” Luntz said about three weeks after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
The resuscitation and revitalization of Democratic prospects (both large D and small d) is a Black Swan event, for sure.
Thanks Jon- always a pleasure to read your informative and detailed reporting!
I am right behind the ideology of this blog and like you as a writer but perhaps, as I come from a "land downunder" you should know more about Black Swans...in the 1960s an infamous book published by a hoax writer "The Black Swan of Trespass" came out which explored: "‘a general philosophical exploration of the idea that a creative person in this material world is almost inevitably a sacrifice’ Max Bourke, Canberra
Several years ago, I read Taleb's interesting book, The Black Swan. He introduces a metaphorical narrative about a turkey before Thanksgiving who is fed and treated well for many consecutive days, only to be slaughtered and served as a meal - certainly a Black Swan event for the turkey. Thus, Taleb illustrates the philosophical problem of induction and how past performance is no indicator of future performance.
Further along, he describes the concept of "epistemic arrogance", which occurs whenever people begin to think they know more than they actually do. This may well describe today's entire Republican Party.
Thank you for your column, Jonathan. Always informative. Remember faithfully reading your columns from your "Newsweek" days!
Excellent job, Jonathan. Looking forward to your reports from Chicago.
Good column, Jonathan.