Michael Moore was more right than I was, but not earlier, to my knowledge. I started back in February with this argument about Democrats doing well but spent much of the piece admitting where I was also wrong, especially at the very end.
Uh, if you're done patting yourself on the back, you might want to go shake the hand of Michael Moore, who's been saying the same thing a lot longer than you have.
Excellent analysis. Also your link back to the trouble with polling. Are these polls of any value in a time when the two parties are so evenly matched--and every outcome seems to fall within the margin of error?
Thanks, Sam. Polls are still useful for campaigns and the public to get a GENERAL SENSE of what voters are thinking. But response rates are so low—and turnout models so faulty—they are of little use in predicting who will win.
Jonathan, I was not surprised by the midterms. I learned a lesson a few years ago from one of the smartest people I know. Pony Bob is an actor and horse trainer, not a pundit, but he always says, "don't watch the polls, watch the women." And he's usually right.
Jon, He meant women often have their own reasons to vote that they don't broadcast. Reproductive health care/abortion these days. Peace issues during the Vietnam War (he's a VN vet). He advocates men talking to the women they know.
Yes, the fate of democracy was a key driver for Dem turnout. Of course, Finchem was the dreaded heavy in the narrative. But jeez! This damn election was such a squeaker that I'm starting to believe that Abe Lincoln himself was pulling the strings! You've just described a harrowing election night like no other.
And thanks to you, Jon, for showing all the reasons to stay hopeful in the runup to Nov. 8.
Michael Moore was more right than I was, but not earlier, to my knowledge. I started back in February with this argument about Democrats doing well but spent much of the piece admitting where I was also wrong, especially at the very end.
Uh, if you're done patting yourself on the back, you might want to go shake the hand of Michael Moore, who's been saying the same thing a lot longer than you have.
Excellent analysis. Also your link back to the trouble with polling. Are these polls of any value in a time when the two parties are so evenly matched--and every outcome seems to fall within the margin of error?
Thanks, Sam. Polls are still useful for campaigns and the public to get a GENERAL SENSE of what voters are thinking. But response rates are so low—and turnout models so faulty—they are of little use in predicting who will win.
Jonathan, I was not surprised by the midterms. I learned a lesson a few years ago from one of the smartest people I know. Pony Bob is an actor and horse trainer, not a pundit, but he always says, "don't watch the polls, watch the women." And he's usually right.
Thanks, Jane. But what exactly did Pony Bob mean?
Jon, He meant women often have their own reasons to vote that they don't broadcast. Reproductive health care/abortion these days. Peace issues during the Vietnam War (he's a VN vet). He advocates men talking to the women they know.
Yes, the fate of democracy was a key driver for Dem turnout. Of course, Finchem was the dreaded heavy in the narrative. But jeez! This damn election was such a squeaker that I'm starting to believe that Abe Lincoln himself was pulling the strings! You've just described a harrowing election night like no other.
And thanks to you, Jon, for showing all the reasons to stay hopeful in the runup to Nov. 8.
Thanks for your loyal readership, JoAnne!!