Be of Good Cheer

President Biden’s historic decision sets up an exciting campaign that will energize voters

A previous version of this post included a typo incorrectly stating that nearly 40,000 delegates will vote on the first ballot. Of course, the real number is nearly 4000, as corrected below:

The circumstances of Joe Biden’s painful end to his candidacy will soon be forgotten, but the accomplishments of his presidency will be remembered for generations.

Biden will be seen by historians as the most consequential one-term president in American history, with trillions in investments in infrastructure, technology, and green energy that will propel the United States forward. And his exit will be in the selfless tradition of Cincinnatus and George Washington, who originated the peaceful transfer of power that is the sine qua non of our republic.

As I reviewed why Biden definitely had to go, I had a flashback this afternoon that might be relevant. My thoughts turned to when Biden was vice president and got out ahead of President Obama on marriage equality, thereby hastening a change in policy.

The speed of the social acceptance of gay marriage in the first part of the 21st Century was the product of common experience. Nearly every American has a gay relative or friend, and can thus relate to marriage equality on a personal level.

The same is true of Biden’s age. Millions of people have had to gently tell their aging parents that they can no longer drive safely amid concerns that their health could deteriorate at any time. This common experience with a loved one began harming Biden in the polls in 2022, and it swamped him after his June debate with Donald Trump.

“Loved one” is an apt term. Biden is loved, and his moral stature will now surge. That’s why his endorsement of Kamala Harris makes her the presumptive nominee. He will now be free to concentrate on a deal in the Mideast that will help the Democratic ticket. (A treaty in Ukraine will be harder, if not impossible, to achieve because Vladimir Putin is holding out for Trump).

Biden will take many shots at Trump — starting in his primetime address this week — and they will land. Everyone respects a magnanimous elder statesman.

At the same time, Republican charges of a White House “cover-up” of Biden’s health will win them exactly zero new votes. It just reminds people that there’s now only one non-transparent geezer in the race, who will likely reject new demands that he take a cognitive test. His last one (“person, woman, man, camera, TV”) was four years ago. And every reporter should ask Republican attack dogs if they’ve seen Biden’s respectable post-G-7 press conference. Are they just as knowledgable as he is about global affairs? Can they not grasp the difference between competent governance and the demands of vigorous campaigning?

I’m so glad Harris said today, “It is my intention to earn and win this nomination.” This will help address the inevitable rap that she is a DEI candidate who was handed the vice presidency.

The “blitz primary” idea is to start this weekend with a series of three or four joint appearances, perhaps moderated by Oprah. Dispatching rivals on stage would get Harris’s campaign off on a strong footing and give her an early chance to exceed the low expectations that so many voters have for her. Watch for stories of a “New Kamala.”

To help her clear the bar and make herself seem even more inevitable, I expect Harris will announce her choice for vice president soon. Donors have already been vetting candidates. Among those mentioned are North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

Each has advantages and disadvantages. Cooper could help put North Carolina in play for Democrats, but they may need to first nail down a must-win state where they currently lag. Shapiro is a highly popular governor of a battleground state, and one-third of Trump voters approve of him, but a Black-Jewish ticket might be a bit much. Whitmer is also popular and well-spoken, but doubling down with two women could be risky. Beshear is an attractive option, but Kentucky is red. Kelly is a former astronaut and highly decorated veteran with a wife, Gabby Giffords, who could highlight the gun safety issue, but he might be underpowered on stage.

There will be no “open convention” that wastes precious time on politicking when it’s needed to promote the nominee and savage Trump. Instead, the nearly 4000 delegates will vote remotely in the next month. They are likely to support Harris on the first ballot unless she messes up between now and then.

All the money talk is not especially relevant. It’s easier if Harris is the nominee, but it is not a deal-breaker financially if she isn’t. Donors will have to opt-in to shift their contributions to a non-Harris nominee, but there are workarounds to other impediments that involve super PACs and the DNC. I’ve consulted experts on this and it’s pretty clear the lawyers can figure it out. In the meantime, expect a gusher of money to the super PACs beginning tomorrow. And any donor who “maxed out” to the Biden-Harris campaign will now be free to max out again, yielding even more cash.

Biden’s historic decision injects energy, excitement, and purpose into the Democratic campaign. Be of good cheer.