How Democrats Can Win in November

To paraphrase Nixon, the RNC gave Democrats the sword. Now they need to get out of their funk and twist it with relish

For months, Democrats have been freaking out or curling up in the fetal position—depending on the day. They’re convinced a red tsunami will wash away their majority in the November midterms.

These snowflakes need to listen to Cher, who slaps Nicholas Cage in Moonstruck and yells, “Snap out of it.”

That’s because for all of the sobering news about inflation there’s hope on the horizon. This week, we learned that January 6th is becoming a genuine wedge issue in American politics—a source of division inside the Republican Party that has Democrats licking their chops. They will spend the rest of year (and likely longer) reminding voters that the official position of the GOP is that a violent attack on the Capitol was “legitimate political discourse.”

That astonishing gaffe by the Republican National Committee may transform the midterms from a referendum on President Biden to one on the nuttiness of the Republican Party.

And with a little imagination, 2022 can be sold as a prelude to 2024. This would tee up the question for independents and swing voters in the suburbs: Do you really want this crazy dictator who flushes documents down the toilet back in power, pardoning fascists who assaulted police and hung a noose for Mike Pence?

Pardons aren’t a good look for Republicans. The last time they surfaced in midterms was in 1974, when President Ford pardoned Richard Nixon and Democrats won in a landslide. The pardon was still an issue in 1976, when Jimmy Carter sent Ford packing.

I get that history is no comfort this year, thanks to the pendular quality of midterms. Only four times in the last century (1934, 1962, 1998, and 2002) has the party controlling the White House not lost House seats in midterm elections. In the other 20 contests, voters checked the incumbent president. With a 50-50 Senate and a mere five-vote Democratic margin in the House, even a slight check on President Biden would bring Republican control.

If Biden’s polling numbers don’t climb, it’s hard to see a path for Democrats in the House. But the approval ratings of Presidents Reagan, Clinton and Obama all languished in the 40s early in their presidencies before rising. And even without a Biden surge, the matchups today look fairly good for Democrats in the Senate, where Republicans are defending more vulnerable seats.

Recent weeks have brought cheering news for Democrats. Barring a nasty new Covid variant, the pandemic is receding. Job growth in Biden’s first year in office shattered all records. And the president looks stronger on foreign policy after U.S. forces killed the leader of ISIS, and NATO united behind his approach to containing Russia.

For months, Democrats tried to ban gerrymandering in Congress but were blocked by Republicans at every turn. Instead of unilaterally disarming, they have moved to own their hypocrisy in blue states and beat the Republicans at their own game. According to the Cook Political Report, aggressive Democratic gerrymandering (most recently in New York) has put them on track to net 2-3 House seats.

All of this is necessary but not sufficient for an upset. To lift the sour national mood and recover in the polls, Biden must reduce or at least stabilize inflation, now running at 7.5%. But fretting Democrats should be patient. It will likely take months for supply chains to unclog and the Federal Reserve’s new medicine to work.

Of course global events this year involving Russia, China or Iran might condition the midterms, depending on how well or poorly the president responds. The Supreme Court overturning Roe vs. Wade in June could galvanize Democrats; a less sweeping decision would have less impact in November. Even contentious hearings this spring over a Black woman nominee for the Court would likely be too far in the past to shape the midterms, though her selection will help drive Black turnout. So will the failure of federal voting rights legislation. Black voters will wait in line a long time to exercise a right their forebears fought and died for.

Voter suppression could hurt the GOP with white swing voters, too. They like the convenience of the mail-in ballots that Republicans are trying to restrict, and will likely be receptive to attack ads against GOP governors and state legislators who voted to discriminate against disabled voters who have trouble getting to the polls.

Thinking that way—playing aggressive offense instead of the usual traumatized defense—is essential for Democrats this year.

The broader challenge is to close the enthusiasm gap with the GOP.  Yes, as every pundit says, it’s important for them to brag better about their genuine accomplishments. But that’s not enough. They need to take a bazooka to the Republican brand.

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The broader challenge is to close the enthusiasm gap with the GOP.  Yes, as every pundit says, it’s important for them to brag better about their genuine accomplishments. But that’s not enough. They need to take a bazooka to the Republican brand.

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The February 4 RNC meeting offers plenty of ammo. The conservative National Review recently editorialized that the party’s decision to censure Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and its now-infamous “legitimate political discourse” resolution amounted to “political malpractice” and will be “used against hundreds of local Republicans.” So will Trump’s insistence that he had the right to “overturn the election,” a confession to seditious conduct that will be explored and amplified on television day after day starting in April during prime time hearings of the January 6 committee.

The biggest impediments for Democrats may be…Democrats. They seem weaker than Republicans at the basic blocking and tackling of politics. While exceeding the GOP so far in fund-raising, they are less well-organized at the local level and less nimble in the news cycle. After the RNC meeting, for instance, it was Cheney, not Democrats, who charged that the Republican Party had been “taken hostage” by Trump.

Consultants who claim that Democrats can no longer be mobilized by loathing of the Orange monster took the wrong message from the GOP’s big win last fall in Virginia. They claim that Terry McAuliffe’s loss to Glenn Youngkin proved that efforts to lash Republican candidates to Trump are doomed. But McAuliffe lost because he was a stale retread who made a crippling gaffe on education. And Youngkin’s ability to thread the needle on Trump will be much harder for less skillful candidates, especially once they are compelled in the general election to say whether they actually want to see Trump back to the White House.

Other consultants recently told The New York Times that raising the danger Trumpists pose to democracy is “abstract” and “partisan noise” that won’t move suburban swing voters. This thinking ignores the mechanics of winning midterms. While the bulk of voters are motivated by kitchen table issues, the army of passionate volunteers the party needs to win are angry and terrified by the prospect of an unhinged, undemocratic political party running Congress.

The data on midterms is consistent: turnout is almost always driven by antagonism not affirmation. In 2014, when Democrats lost some enthusiasm for Barack Obama (and thus control of the Senate), 36 percent of the electorate voted. In 2018, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot but anger toward him (and what he was doing on health care) was surging, turnout was 49 percent and Democrats regained control of the House. They key to victory for Democrats is to match the latter turnout.

Even if the daily revelations about Trump blur together, they have a cumulative power to project the story forward—to shift the focus from  distractions like critical race theory to whether moderate voters in the suburbs can stomach the extremist Trump stooges who prevailed in GOP primaries. Of course Democrats will do better against them if they avoid leading with their chins with politically suicidal ideas like “defund the police.”

All of this is possible only if the Democrats can recover their muscle memory for the fisticuffs of politics. That’s a big “if.” In recent years, the James Carvilles and Paul Begalas have been in short supply. My jaw dropped in early 2020 when then-DNC chair Tom Perez told me he didn’t think it was the party’s job to take Trump apart. That was the responsibility, he said, of the liberal media. The current DNC chair, Jaime Harrison, seems to be taking a more combative posture, attaching #FraudFascismFear to every tweet about Republicans. And Biden himself is showing signs of at least occasionally accessing his inner Harry Truman.

Jaime Harrison, DNC Chair @harrisonjaime

Party of #FraudFearFascism https://t.co/x1Kst6gc6V

Scott Stedman @ScottMStedman

BREAKING: Trump took classified documents with him as he left office, the New York Times reports. https://t.co/WxmdoLnQNI

The conventional wisdom is always changing, which means a Biden comeback story is likely just around the corner. He may even peak too soon, giving the GOP its own comeback narrative. There’s time for all of that and more.

The winner of the midterms will likely be the party that controls the story in early fall, as Republicans did in 1994 when they unveiled their hugely effective “Contract with America” and again in 2014, when they picked up seats by falsely blaming Obama for the Ebola virus.

Given that, Democrats must build a firewall on the ground, with something approaching the roughly one million volunteers they enlisted in the last three presidential elections.

So the mission for patriots who want to save American democracy is clear: Stop wringing hands and start ringing doorbells (or using call tools that allow participation in far-off races not just for the House and Senate, but for governor, secretary of state and state rep).

A guest on MSNBC’s The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell put it well last month, arguing that Democrats should “just go on full-tilt. Time’s-a-wasting, guys, and somebody’s got to light a fire.” The guest was Cher.

NOTE: Old Goats will now be published on Friday afternoons.